It's not unusual for Israel to remain silent after major attacks on its enemies, and guilt is generally assumed by the absence of comment, but Herzog was definitive, saying he "rejects out of hand any connection to this or that source of operation".

That does not square with background conversations I've had with political and security officials here in recent days.

Follow the latest updates on the Middle East

Admittedly no one has confessed outright, however discussion of the attacks and the potential consequences, are generally framed by a metaphorical nod and wink, and conversations had proceeded along the lines of 'we all know what happened, even if we're going to dance around it'.

Herzog might be right to suggest Hezbollah has other enemies, but aside from the US, which has repeatedly denied even knowing about the attacks ahead of time, I can not think of another state that would have the capability, will and purpose to carry out those attacks.

Read more:
How pagers can be modified to remotely explode
Israel's long history of alleged secret operations

As one serving Western intelligence official remarked to me a few days ago, "None of us would dare do it because of the collateral damage".

No one, not even Israel, has come up with an alternative culprit.

The timing of the attacks, were it not Israel, are too coincidental.

This came around the same time Israel announced it was entering a new phase in the north and then launched multiple heavy barrages of Lebanon, including a massive air strike in southern Beirut.